Monday 12th November 2018.
A quiet day on the Brexit Broadwalk. A second Cabinet Cinister comes out in two days to declare that the Cabinet will act as a check upon PM May´s plans. The EU/UK Negotiators have been meeting all day. There is no deal in sight yet, although the draft Withdrawal Agreement is now 400 pages plus long,apparently. Senior ministers are telling May to prepare for a no Deal Brexit. Also, Robert Peston on Twitter is worth reading today for his incisive comments. BREAKING. Pizza Club of Brexiters hold meeting tonight to discuss tactics ahead of tomorrow´s Cabinet meeting.
As expected, Labour will use a debate tomorrow to try to force a vote in Commons that would make the govt publish the legal advice on the troubled backstop proposal – with Brexiteers and DUP on board hard to see how ministers avoid having to accept in the end.
“Up until last week, I was thinking she probably could and would” Grant Shapps on Theresa May’s political survival through Brexit talks.
What happens if
#Brexit negotiators cannot do deal on Irish backstop “exit” mechanism? Then the EU may find itself with tough choice – between no deal, and a deal that gives them everything (€€€, citizens’ rights, security) BUT Ireland. My latest. The Telegraph
The fact that cabinet ministers are briefing the BBC that they didn’t much like the Chequers plan in July (but signed it off and have sat in the cabinet for four months since that meeting) might give a clue to how much backbone they are likely to have in the days ahead.
@UKLabour have changed our first opposition day motion tomorrow to force a binding vote in the HoC demanding that the Government’s legal advice on the withdrawal agreement – including the Irish backstop – is published once any Brexit deal is ready to be put to Parliament.
There is now no chance of a deal on withdrawal from the EU being put to cabinet tomorrow, even if there is agreement on the outstanding backstop issues overnight. The reason is
@theresa_may knows she has to give her ministers at least one night to assess the detail.of any agreement.
So the earliest a cabinet could meet to ratify the deal, or throw it out, or ratify with some ministers quitting, is Wednesday. And Wednesday morning is problematic because no PM wants a cabinet before PMQs.
So Cabinet agreement on the terms of withdrawal from the EU, including the contentious question of how to keep open the border between NI and ROI, is turning into a moveable feast that never actually happens. There is a growing risk, as I’ve been saying, that no-deal preparations have to be massively ramped up.
no agreement this week = bigover November summit = “more and more difficult time-wise” political situation in UK = “difficult, fragile”
Parliament to vote on changes to
@EIB statute in January
@EPInstitutional Committee Chair, @danutahuebner, reports back on the main developments of the #Brexit negotiations. Watch it LIVE from 7.30pm GMT: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-live/en/committees/video?event=20181112-1900-COMMITTEE-AFCO …
Exclusive: Pizza club is BACK. Ministers concerned about customs backstop are tonight gathering for drinks at Liam Fox’s office ahead of tomorrow’s Cabinet Those present include Dom Raab, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and Geoffrey Cox. Telegraph
Senior Cabinet ministers including Raab, Leadsom and Fox are saying that no-deal is better than bowing to the EU’s demands over backstop I’m told talks in Brussels broke down at 2.45am after Olly Robbins told Sabine Weyland PM could ‘not go back to Cabinet’ with proposed deal.
The proposed Brexit deal IS NOT on the agenda for Cabinet tomorrow. Instead ministers will have a discussion about ‘soft power’ Dom Raab is updating minister on no deal preparations, however, which should give Eurosceptics space to make their points.
No Deal-Plus increasingly becoming most likely outcome, writes Brian Monteith. Scotsman.
Former ERG deputy chair Michael Tomlinson joins Dexeu as Raab’s PPS. He has been very vocal about leaving the customs union and striking trade deals… not happening any time soon under current No10 plan.
NEW: Senior ministers led by Dominic Raab tell Theresa May no deal is preferable to the current offer from the EU.